Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Never Too Early for a Preview

As all baseball fans know, the baseball season is right around the corner. It's never too early to take a quick look at the teams. It was a pretty active offseason this year which means a lot of teams feel they are now poised to make the playoffs. Let's start with the NL East tonight. First, here are the 2009 results.

Philadelphia Phillies 93-69
Florida Marlins 87-75
Atlanta Braves 86 - 76
New York Mets 70 - 92
Washington Nationals 59 - 103

Let's quickly look at some interesting thoughts and questions for each team.

Phillies

- Roy Halladay is finally out of the AL East and will be pitching for a team focused on making their third straight World Series. Most believe the AL is tougher to pitch in, so can Halladay actually put up even better numbers now in Philly?

- Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge were not very good last year, but have had success in the past. Was last year a fluke season for them or a trend?

- Can the big three hitters (Rollins, Utley and Howard) stay healthy as they quietly creep up in age and wear and tear? This is a big year for the Phillies, because their window is closing a bit to try and win another World Series.

Marlins

- Hanley Ramirez is still improving? We'll see, he can definitely improve defensively still but hitting wise I'm not sure if he can improve.

- Will this team somehow find a way to stay competitive again like they do every season?

Braves

- The Braves are a pitching team again. They have a solid rotation and Wagner and Saito in the bullpen. However, Jair Jurrigan is already supposedly feeling some pain in his arm. Can they all stay healthy?

- Will Heyward play enough in 2010 to become a force at the plate for a team in need of more bats?

Mets

- I guess you have to start with health. Beltran will start off injured, but otherwise everyone else should be healthy...for now.

- Can David Wright and Jose Reyes put together a season everyone expects them to almost every season? They have all the potential, but haven't done it entirely yet. They now have Jason Bay as well to help carry the offensive load.

- Anyone know a Mets pitcher not names Santana or Rodriguez? Isn't that a problem?

Nationals

- Not much to say, except this team is still trying to load up on talent. Strasburg might pitch this season, and they could very well draft Bryce Harper, but still this team isn't ready.

- Will Ryan Zimmerman be around to see the other talented players?

- Can Chien-Meng Wang actually help keep this team competitive by returning back to form?

Those are just a few of the things I am wondering about this season in the NL East. It should be an exciting year in this division, but I expect the Phillies to continue winning. The only team I think who could challenge them is the Braves, but I still think they are a bat short of competing for the division.

Overhyping prospects

You hear the same noise every season. Someone reads a scouting report on a minor leaguer, and all of a sudden he is pegged a savior by a bunch of people who couldn't identify the guy in a police lineup. Why do we buy into the hype every time simply by going on someone else's scouting?

Let's face it. The casual fan has never seen Strasburg, Chapman or Heyward for example play. Yet, Nationals, Reds and Braves fans thinks they have Hall of Famers in their system. Now, I'm not saying these guys are going to be busts, but can we form our own opinions.

The internet has made it so easy to just quickly look up someone's opinon (you know, like the one you are reading right now). Nothing beats going out and watching these guys play though first before purchasing your Hall of Fame induction tickets.

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Part 2: The Increased Velocity

Yesterday I talked a bit about the players who lost the most off their fastball. Today I want to look at the big gainers. As you might imagine, most of the people on this list are relatively young and still working on strength and form to maximize the fastball.

The top guy on the list is Justin Masterson. Masterson was traded at the deadline from the Red Sox to the Indians. He is a relatively young pitcher still tinkering with his motion and maturing, so it is not surprise he threw his fastball almost 3 MPH faster.

Nick Masset was the other main gainer, and he enjoyed his finest season at 27 years old because of it. A lifetime reliever, he was 5-1 with a 2.37 ERA for the Reds, well below his 3.97 career ERA.

At the bottom of the list is a pair of once great pitchers probably getting healthy again. Barry Zito has struggled since arriving in San Francisco, but had his best season in a while in 2009 thanks to a little more zip on his fastball. Brad Penny has always been a hard thrower until around 2008, but that could have be due to nagging injuries since he responded nicely in 2009.

Below is the entire top 10 gainers. These lists were pretty interesting because of it gives reason as to why some of these players struggled so much or had their best seasons. Speed isn't everything for pitchers, but an extra MPH or two does usually make your overall statistics better. It will be interesting to see who starts throwing a little harder in 2010.

Justin Masterson, 2.8
Nick Masset, 2.6
Matt Capps, 2.1
Ryan Madson, 2.1
Kevin Correia, 2
Justin Verlander, 2
Mark Lowe, 2
Huston Street, 1.7
Barry Zito, 1.6
Brad Penny, 1.6

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Fastballs increasing and decreasing

Hey everyone, sorry for the layoff after the first post but I look to get this going more from now on.

As the 2010 season is quickly approaching, some data has been released on which pitchers lost the most velocity on their fastball and which pitchers gained velocity. This is intriguing information because sometimes you can make conclusions from the data.

From 2008-2009, no pitcher lost more average velocity on their fastball than Joba Chamberlain. His fastball was down 2.5 MPH in 2009, which could help explain why he still has yet to fully figure out how to pitch effectively at the MLB level.

The only other guy who lost over 2 MPH was Ervin Santana (2.1). The oft-injured pitcher didn't have a great year, but one may wonder if it has more to do with injuries than just losing effectiveness.

One pitcher to note losing velocity though was Tim Lincecum. Yes, between his 2008 and 2009 Cy Young seasons, he lost 1.7 MPH. He did have a few hiccups during the season, but overall I credit it to throwing more offspeed pitches and therefore not needing to gear it up to blow it by everyone. I think it will continue to gradually go down as well since he is a smaller pitcher (think Pedro Martinez.

Later, I'll look at the pitchers who gained velocity. I'll leave you with the top 10 losers from 2008-2009.

Joba Chamberlain, -2.5
Ervin Santana, -2.1
Ross Ohlendorf, -2
Jared Burton, -1.7
Tim Lincecum, -1.7
Daniel Cabrera, -1.7
Manny Delcarmen, -1.6
Chan Ho Park, -1.6
Brian Fuentes, -1.6
Jeremy Sowers, -1.5

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Welcome to my baseball website. To start, I guess I'll explain the "Arm Side Run" name. A fastball is usually identified as a four-seam or two-seam pitch. If a pitcher has good arm side run, that means the ball will cut a bit on the arm's side of the pitcher. A two-seamer usually has arm side run, while a cutter has a good amount of glove side run.

With this blog, I'll be talking a lot about the little things in baseball. Hopefully, people can learn from this site. I doubt there will be much connection from one post to the other, but I guess that will help keep things interesting. Check back for more posts.